Impact of Macroeconomic and social Factors on Economic Growth: Moderating role of Belt and Road Initiative
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51153/mf.v16i2.511Keywords:
GDP, FDI, Lending rate, Belt and Road Initiative, Personal remittancesAbstract
The primary purpose of this study is to investigate how the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) affects the relationship between macroeconomic and social factors (i.e., foreign direct investment (FDI), lending rate, inflation, personal remittances, and secondary school education) and gross domestic product (GDP). We have collected the data from the World Bank from 1990 to 2019 (n=870, countries=23). The study has used statistical techniques such as regression analysis and hierarchical regression. The study found that macroeconomic and social factors (i.e., foreign direct investment (FDI), lending rates, inflation rates, personal remittance, and Secondary School Education) affect GDP. We also found that BRI moderates the association between macroeconomic and social factors with GDP. We have collected the data from the countries that have become the BRI partners by 2016. Future studies may consider using the data that have joined BRI after 2016.References
Abdouli, M., & Hammami, S. (2017). The impact of FDI inflows and environmental quality on economic growth: an empirical study for the MENA countries. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 8(1), 254-278. Adu-Gyamfi, G., Nketiah, E., Obuobi, B., & Adjei, M. (2019). Trade Openness, Inflation and GDP Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Nine (9) West Africa Countries. Open Journal of Business and Management, 8(1), 314-328. Achour, H., & Belloumi, M. (2016). Investigating the causal relationship between transport infrastructure, transport energy consumption, and economic growth in Tunisia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 56, 988-998. Ajayi, S. A., Oladipo, O. A., Ajayi, L. B., & Nwanji, T. I. (2017). Interest rate and economic growth: The case of Nigeria. International Review of Business Research Papers, 13(1), 141-150. Ale, S. A., Akter, R., & Islam, M. S. (2018). Remittance Inflow and GDP Growth: Evidence from Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 8(11), 1340-1356. Akinwale, S. O. (2018). Bank Lending Rate and Economic Growth. Evidence from Nigeria. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics &Management Sciences, 7(3), 111-122. Almfraji, M. A., & Almsafir, M. K. (2014). Foreign direct investment and economic growth literature review from 1994 to 2012. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 129, 206-213. Arbués, P., Baños, J. F., & Mayor, M. (2015). The spatial productivity of transportation infrastructure. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 75, 166-177. Arshad, N., Isaksen, T., Hansen, J. B., & Brækkan, S. K. (2017). Time trends in incidence rates of venous thromboembolism in a large cohort recruited from the general population. European journal of epidemiology, 32(4), 299-305. Bende-Nabende, A. (2018). FDI, Economic Growth in Host Developing Countries England: Routledge. Bleaney, M., Gemmell, N., & Kneller, R. (2001). Testing the endogenous growth model: public expenditure, taxation, and growth over the long run. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d’économique, 34(1), 36-57. Cao, S., & Kang, S. J. (2020). Personal remittances and financial development for economic growth in economic transition countries. International Economic Journal, 34(3), 472-492. Ceesay, E. K., Sanneh, T., Jawo, A., Jarju, M., & Jassey, O. (2019). Impact of Personal Remittances Received on Economic Growth in the Gambia. Asian Basic and Applied Research Journal, 45- 58. Cigu, E., Agheorghiesei, D. T., & Toader, E. (2019). Transport infrastructure development, public performance, and long-run economic growth: a case study for the Eu-28 countries. Sustainability, 11(1), 67.
Demena, B. A., & Afesorgbor, S. K. (2020). The effect of FDI on environmental emissions: Evidence from a meta-analysis. Energy Policy, 138, 1-17. De-Mendonça, H. F., & Brito, Y. (2021). The link between public debt and investment: an empirical assessment from emerging markets. Applied Economics, 53(50) 1-13. De-Soyres, F., Mulabdic, A., Murray, S., Rocha, N., & Ruta, M. (2019). How much will the Belt and Road Initiative reduce trade costs? International Economics, 159, 151-164. Donaldson, D. (2018). Railroads of the Raj: Estimating the impact of transportation infrastructure. American Economic Review, 108(4-5), 899-934. Dosi, G., Roventini, A., & Russo, E. (2019). Endogenous growth and global divergence in a multi country agent-based model. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 101, 101-129. Enderwick, P. (2018). The economic growth and development effects of China’s One Belt, One Road Initiative. Strateconomic growth ic Change, 27(5), 447-454. Feng, S., Lauvaux, T., Davis, K. J., Keller, K., Zhou, Y., Williams, C., ... & Baker, I. (2019). Seasonal characteristics of model uncertainties from biogenic fluxes, transport, and largeâ€scale boundary inflow in atmospheric CO2 simulations over North America. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124(24), 14325-14346. Fischer, S. (1992). Macroeconomic stability and growth. Cuadernos de EconomÃa, 29(87), 171-186. Fu, Y., Wu, D., Wang, Y., & Wang, H. (2020). Facility location and capacity planning considering policy preference and uncertain demand under the One Belt One Road initiative. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 138, 172-186. Gabusi, G. (2017). Crossing the river by feeling the gold: The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the financial support to the Belt and Road Initiative. China & World Economy, 25(5), 23-45. Gezdim, S. B., & Zortuk, M. (2018). The Impact of FDI on Economic Growth in Transition Countries: a Panel Quantile Regression Approach. Applied Economics for Development: Empirical Approaches to Selected Social and Economic Issues in Transition Economies, Delaware: Vernon Press. Herzer D (2012). How does foreign direct investment really affect developing countries’ growth? Review of International Economics 20(2), 396–414. Huang, Y. (2016). Understanding China’s Belt & Road initiative: motivation, framework and assessment. China Economic Review, 40, 314-321. Huy, D. T. N., Loan, B. T. T., & Pham, T. A. (2020). Impact of selected factors on stock price: a case study of Vietcombank in Vietnam. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 7(4), 1-16. Islam, T. S., Wadud, M. A., & Islam, Q. B. T. (2007). Relationship between education and GDP growth: A multivariate causality analysis for Bangladesh. Economics Bulletin, 3(35), 1-7.
Jacobs, J., Ogawa, K., Sterken, E., & Tokutsu, I. (2020). Public debt, economic growth and the real interest rate: A panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD countries. Applied Economics, 52(12), 1377-1394. Jia, P., Xue, H., Liu, S., Wang, H., Yang, L., Hesketh, T., ... & Wang, Y. (2019). Opportunities and challenges of using big data for global health. Science Bulletin, 64(22), 1-10. Kalai, M., & Zghidi, N. (2019). Foreign direct investment, trade, and economic growth in MENA countries: An empirical analysis using ARDL bounds testing approach. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 10(1), 397-421. Kummu, M., Taka, M., & Guillaume, J. H. (2018). Gridded global datasets for gross domestic product and Human Development Index over 1990–2015. Scientific Data, 5(1), 1-15. Lee, P. T. W., Lee, S. W., Hu, Z. H., Choi, K. S., Choi, N. Y. H., & Shin, S. H. (2018). Promoting Korean international trade in the East Sea Economic Rim in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative. Journal of Korea Trade, 22(3), 212-227. Li, K. X., Jin, M., Qi, G., Shi, W., & Ng, A. K. (2018). Logistics as a driving force for development under the belt and road initiative–the Chinese model for developing countries. Transport Reviews, 38(4), 457-478. Maiga, F. K. (2017). Impact of interest rate on economic growth in Nigeria. Pyrex Journal of Business and Finance Management Research, 3(3), 98-111. Maparu, T. S., & Mazumder, T. N. (2017). Transport infrastructure, economic development and urbanization in India (1990–2011): Is there any causal relationship?. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 100, 319-336. Maran, M. (2021). Impact of Interest Loan, Growth of Regional Gross Domestic Product, Inflation and Economic Growth on Loans at Credit Union in West Kalimantan, Indonesia. Journal of Asian Multicultural Research for Economy and Management Study, 2(3), 37-47. Mekvabishvili, E., & Atanelishvili, T. (2017). Personal remittances in the post-Soviet countries (comparative analysis). Bull. Georg. National Academy Science, 11(3), 157-163. Mishchenko, V., Naumenkova, S., Mishchenko, S., & Ivanov, V. (2018). Inflation and economic growth: The search for a compromise for the Central Bank’s monetary policy. Banks and Bank Systems, 13(2), 153-163. Musarat, M. A., Alaloul, W. S., & Liew, M. S. (2021). Impact of inflation rate on construction projects budget: A review. Ain Shams Engineering Journal, 12(1), 407-414. Ndoricimpa, A. (2017). Threshold effects of inflation on economic growth: is Africa different?. International Economic Journal, 31(4), 599-620. Nyoni, T. (2018). Box-Jenkins ARIMA Approach to Predicting Net FDI Inflows in Zimbabwe. {Available}, https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/87737/1 /M P RA _ ap e r _ 87737.pdf Ogundari, K., & Awokuse, T. (2018). Human capital contribution to economic growth in Sub Saharan Africa: does health status matter more than education?. Economic Analysis and Policy, 58, 131-140.
Jacobs, J., Ogawa, K., Sterken, E., & Tokutsu, I. (2020). Public debt, economic growth and the real interest rate: A panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD countries. Applied Economics, 52(12), 1377-1394. Jia, P., Xue, H., Liu, S., Wang, H., Yang, L., Hesketh, T., ... & Wang, Y. (2019). Opportunities and challenges of using big data for global health. Science Bulletin, 64(22), 1-10. Kalai, M., & Zghidi, N. (2019). Foreign direct investment, trade, and economic growth in MENA countries: An empirical analysis using ARDL bounds testing approach. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 10(1), 397-421. Kummu, M., Taka, M., & Guillaume, J. H. (2018). Gridded global datasets for gross domestic product and Human Development Index over 1990–2015. Scientific Data, 5(1), 1-15. Lee, P. T. W., Lee, S. W., Hu, Z. H., Choi, K. S., Choi, N. Y. H., & Shin, S. H. (2018). Promoting Korean international trade in the East Sea Economic Rim in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative. Journal of Korea Trade, 22(3), 212-227. Li, K. X., Jin, M., Qi, G., Shi, W., & Ng, A. K. (2018). Logistics as a driving force for development under the belt and road initiative–the Chinese model for developing countries. Transport Reviews, 38(4), 457-478. Maiga, F. K. (2017). Impact of interest rate on economic growth in Nigeria. Pyrex Journal of Business and Finance Management Research, 3(3), 98-111. Maparu, T. S., & Mazumder, T. N. (2017). Transport infrastructure, economic development and urbanization in India (1990–2011): Is there any causal relationship?. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 100, 319-336. Maran, M. (2021). Impact of Interest Loan, Growth of Regional Gross Domestic Product, Inflation and Economic Growth on Loans at Credit Union in West Kalimantan, Indonesia. Journal of Asian Multicultural Research for Economy and Management Study, 2(3), 37-47. Mekvabishvili, E., & Atanelishvili, T. (2017). Personal remittances in the post-Soviet countries (comparative analysis). Bull. Georg. National Academy Science, 11(3), 157-163. Mishchenko, V., Naumenkova, S., Mishchenko, S., & Ivanov, V. (2018). Inflation and economic growth: The search for a compromise for the Central Bank’s monetary policy. Banks and Bank Systems, 13(2), 153-163. Musarat, M. A., Alaloul, W. S., & Liew, M. S. (2021). Impact of inflation rate on construction projects budget: A review. Ain Shams Engineering Journal, 12(1), 407-414. Ndoricimpa, A. (2017). Threshold effects of inflation on economic growth: is Africa different?. International Economic Journal, 31(4), 599-620. Nyoni, T. (2018). Box-Jenkins ARIMA Approach to Predicting Net FDI Inflows in Zimbabwe. {Available}, https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/87737/1 /M P RA _ ap e r _ 87737.pdf Ogundari, K., & Awokuse, T. (2018). Human capital contribution to economic growth in Sub Saharan Africa: does health status matter more than education?. Economic Analysis and Policy, 58, 131-140.
Wang, L., Yan, H., Yang, X., Ciabuschi, F., & Wei, W. X. (2020). Assets of origin? Chinese multinational enterprises amidst the Belt and Road Initiative. International Business Review,62 (3), 233-238. Yan, T., & Enderwick, P. (2021). Evolution of China’s outward foreign direct investment regime: Implications for southeast asia under the belt and road initiative. The Singapore Economic Review, 66(01), 143-159. Zhang, W. B. (2013). Education, Local Amenity and Spatial Agglomeration in a Small-Open Multi-Regional Economic Growth Model: Extending the Uzawa-Lucas Model to an Interregional Economy. Business and Economics Research Journal, 4(1), 1-28.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
- Copyright of all the submissions to the Market Forces will remain to the contributors.
- Anyone is allowed to distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon his/her work, even commercially, as long as it is credited/cited to the original contributors of the Market Forces.
